It certainly looks as if this may be the case based on the trend of home sales over the past 3 months! Normally home sales decline from mid summer through to January or February and then increase from February through to the summer.

Buyer activity tends to slow down as the start of the school year approaches through to the holiday season. Buyers start looking for a home in early spring and try to close before school. This buyer behavior leads to the peaks in sales in summer and valleys in winter. However, over the last 3 months we have seen month over month increases in the number of homes sold. This is not typical for this time of year and not what would be expected in a difficult market like the one we have had where buyer sentiment has been negative.

So why the change in home buyer behavior? Although no can say with certainty, I would offer that home buyers have seen prices of homes in New Hampshire drop to more affordable levels. In addition, the home mortgage rates have declined and are now hovering around 6% for a conventional 30 year note. Very good considering we were around 7% just 6 months ago. The lower interest rates add to home affordability. As stated in previous market reports, this market was not the result of a major economic event, such as massive job losses. So fundamentally, the feeling about the economy is positive. (An important factor when someone is considering a major purchase)

One last factor that may be influencing buyers, especially first time buyers, is the direction of interest rates. After so many years of interest rates in the 5% to 6% range we all got used to low rates. There is a whole group of buyers in the market today that do not remember double digit rates. The last year proved that interest rates could go up significantly. For a time many thought we might see interest rates hit double digits. This may have scared buyers and made them realize that rates are very good right now and they may not stay at these levels forever. Low rates coupled with lower prices may be enticing buyers to get into the market. Will the September to November trend continue? That remains to be seen.

It looks as if we may have another month of increasing sales ahead of us based upon the number of properties that have gone under agreement in November, which were up 7% from October. This number gives us an even more recent look at buyer sentiment than the sales. Remember, sales numbers tell us how buyers felt 1 or 2 months prior to the closing when they made their offer on a home. (it takes 1 to 2 months to close the sale) The number of homes under agreement tells us how buyers feel right now. And this trend is headed up, a positive indication!

Market Notables

The number of homes sold in the area was up from October. This is a trend of increasing sales at a time of year when we usually see decreases in sales.

Single family home sales through the 30th of November 2006 were down 21% from the same period last year. Single family home sales in the month of November were down only 7.6% from last November. (Recall that sales in October were off 38% from a year earlier, so this is an improvement.)

The number of single family homes on the market was down in November to 768 homes. This is a decrease in the supply of homes of 8.5%. Again this is an improvement to the market condition.

The average selling price of a home in November was $347,267. Although this is a decrease from a year earlier it is the result of a decrease in size of the average size home sold. See the chart below.

This data is based on information from the Northern New England Real Estate Network for the periods shown for the towns of Amherst, Bedford, Brookline, Francestown, Greenfield, Greenville, Hollis, Lyndeborough, Mason, Merrimack, Milford, Mont Vernon, Temple, and Wilton.

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